A sweep at the hands of SEC-leading Kentucky this past weekend has left Mississippi State just 11-15 in conference games this spring and given fans a cause for concern regarding the future of Bulldog baseball. The Dawgs look like a long-shot for the SEC Tournament at this point, needing to match Tennessee (vs Alabama) and win one more than LSU (at Florida) this weekend to sneak into next week's event in Hoover.
And this isn't the first time in Ron Polk's five years back on campus that MSU has struggled to make its own league tournament. In fact, the Bulldogs have had just one .500-plus conference record since the legend returned to his old stomping grounds prior to the 2002 season. The squad went 14-15 his first year back, then pounded out a 17-12 mark in 2003. Since then, however, the team has won just 13 league games in each of the last two seasons, and at 11-15 heading into the final weekend of the 2006 season, it looks like that number will be a challenge to match for a third straight year.
Meanwhile, it seems as if a large majority of the SEC has made up the ground that once existed between themselves and the Mississippi State program, and in a number of cases, it appears Diamond Dawg baseball has been passed by. AlwaysADawg.com decided to go back and look at the SEC results of all twelve conference teams since Ron Polk returned to campus. We took into account the five seasons (2002 through 2006, thus far) since Polk returned, unless that school has hired a new coach during this timeframe. In that case, we only considered the years that the new skipper has been in charge. This change applied to Auburn (Tom Slater took over in 2005), Arkansas (Dave Van Horn came in for the 2003 season), Kentucky (John Cohen took charge in 2004), and Vanderbilt (Tim Corbin stepped in for the 2003 campaign).
If you add up the wins and losses and total each squad's winning percentage over this timeframe, you find that Mississippi State trails eight other SEC teams. Yes, that means over the past five years, MSU has averaged a 9th-place finish in the SEC, which leaves you out of the SEC's conference tournament each spring.
Here is a detailed look at the results.
| 1. |
LSU - Head Coach: Smoke Laval |
|
TOTAL: |
87-58 (.600) |
|
2006: |
12-15 |
|
2005: |
18-12 |
|
2004: |
18-12 |
|
2003: |
20-9 |
|
2002: |
19-10 |
|
| 2. |
SOUTH CAROLINA - Head Coach: Ray Tanner |
|
TOTAL: |
87-59 (.596) |
|
2006: |
14-13 |
|
2005: |
16-14 |
|
2004: |
17-13 |
|
2003: |
19-11 |
|
2002: |
21-8 |
|
| 3. |
MISSISSIPPI - Head Coach: Mike Bianco |
|
TOTAL: |
82-65 (.558) |
|
2006: |
15-12 |
|
2005: |
18-12 |
|
2004: |
18-12 |
|
2003: |
17-13 |
|
2002: |
14-16 |
|
| 4. |
FLORIDA - Head Coach: Pat McMahon |
|
TOTAL: |
78-68 (.534) |
|
2006: |
8-19 |
|
2005: |
20-10 |
|
2004: |
17-13 |
|
2003: |
13-16 |
|
2002: |
20-10 |
|
| 5. |
ALABAMA - Head Coach: Jim Wells |
|
TOTAL: |
78-69 (.531) |
|
2006: |
17-10 |
|
2005: |
17-13 |
|
2004: |
10-20 |
|
2003: |
14-16 |
|
2002: |
20-10 |
|
| 6. |
ARKANSAS - Head Coach: Dave Van Horn |
|
TOTAL: |
61-56 (.521) |
|
2006: |
15-12 |
|
2005: |
13-17 |
|
2004: |
19-11 |
|
2003: |
14-16 |
|
2002: |
N/A |
|
| 7. |
GEORGIA - Head Coach: Dave Perno |
|
TOTAL: |
72-74 (.493) |
|
2006: |
16-11 |
|
2005: |
12-17 |
|
2004: |
19-11 |
|
2003: |
10-20 |
|
2002: |
15-15 |
|
| 8. |
VANDERBILT - Head Coach: Tim Corbin |
|
TOTAL: |
57-60 (.487) |
|
2006: |
14-13 |
|
2005: |
13-17 |
|
2004: |
16-14 |
|
2003: |
14-16 |
|
2002: |
N/A |
|
| 9. |
MISSISSIPPI STATE - Head Coach: Ron Polk |
|
TOTAL: |
68-75 (.476) |
|
2006: |
11-15 |
|
2005: |
13-16 |
|
2004: |
13-17 |
|
2003: |
17-12 |
|
2002: |
14-15 |
|
| 10. |
TENNESSEE - Head Coach: Rod Delmonico |
|
TOTAL: |
68-77 (.469) |
|
2006: |
11-15 |
|
2005: |
18-11 |
|
2004: |
14-16 |
|
2003: |
13-17 |
|
2002: |
12-18 |
|
| 11. |
AUBURN - Head Coach: Tom Slater |
|
TOTAL: |
22-35 (.386) |
|
2006: |
9-18 |
|
2005: |
13-17 |
|
2004: |
N/A |
|
2003: |
N/A |
|
2002: |
N/A |
|
| 12. |
KENTUCKY - Head Coach: John Cohen |
|
TOTAL: |
33-53 (.384) |
|
2006: |
19-8 |
|
2005: |
7-22 |
|
2004: |
7-23 |
|
2003: |
N/A |
|
2002: |
N/A |
Whether you support Ron Polk or support the hiring of a new baseball coach, this has to be an alarming trend. No SEC team has had fewer winning seasons in the league over the past five years than Mississippi State. In fact, State is the only team in the SEC West to finish below .500 in four of the past five years.
Meanwhile, in-state rival Mississippi has performed admirably. The Rebels are one of only three teams in the SEC to win 55% of their league games since 2002, and they've had four .500-plus seasons during this timeframe as well. LSU has also finished above the break-even mark four of the past five years, while Alabama has done so three times.
It's also somewhat disappointing to note the success that former Bulldog skipper Pat McMahon has had at Florida. He has taken his Gators to three winning seasons since he took over in 2002, and only a dismal 2006 campaign kept UF out of the top three in the league over the past five years. In addition, Dave Perno has had a good deal of success at Georgia since taking over for Polk in Athens. Perno has finished well above .500 in a pair of seasons and also finished 15-15 in a third season.
And if you want to talk postseason play, that's a whole other argument by itself. Here's a breakdown of Regional appearances and hosting opportunities, Super Regional appearances and hosting opportunities, and College World Series appearances since 2002:
ALABAMA
Regionals Appearances: 3 (1 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 0
CWS Appearances: 0
AUBURN
Regionals Appearances: 3 (1 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 0
CWS Appearances: 0
ARKANSAS
Regionals Appearances: 4 (1 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 2 (1 host)
CWS Appearances: 1
FLORIDA
Regionals Appearances: 4 (2 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 2 (1 host)
CWS Appearances: 1
GEORGIA
Regionals Appearances: 2 (1 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 1 (0 host)
CWS Appearances: 1
KENTUCKY
Regionals Appearances: 0
Super Regional Appearancs: 0
CWS Appearances: 0
LSU
Regionals Appearances: 4 (4 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 3 (2 host)
CWS Appearances: 2
MISSISSIPPI
Regionals Appearances: 3 (2 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 1 (1 host)
CWS Appearances: 0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Regionals Appearances: 3 (1 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 0
CWS Appearances: 0
SOUTH CAROLINA
Regionals Appearances: 4 (2 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 3 (3 host)
CWS Appearances: 3
TENNESSEE
Regionals Appearances: 2 (1 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 1
CWS Appearances: 1
VANDERBILT
Regionals Appearances: 1 (0 host)
Super Regional Appearancs: 1 (0 host)
CWS Appearances: 0
As you can see, MSU does not fare too badly in terms of Regional appearances or hosting opportunities, though LSU, South Carolina, Florida, and to a certain extent, Arkansas, have dominated this category. Where State does come up short is the Super Regional and CWS categories. Eight different SEC teams have played in at least one Super Regional during this timeframe, while the Dawgs have played in none. In fact, five of those eight teams have had the opportunity to host at least one Super Regional, obviously something MSU has yet to do. Additionally, a half-dozen league schools have made trips to Omaha since Polk returned five summers ago, with both Florida and South Carolina having made championship series appearances.
Once a dominant baseball school, both in the SEC and on a national scale, it seems as if Mississippi State has fallen off the pace now required to sustain that elite status. Whether or not that slide started before or during the second tenure of Ron Polk is a debatable point, but the fact that things have not improved over the past five years is something that is clearly shown by the facts above. Meanwhile, fellow SEC members - as well as schools from other conferences around the country - are making strides towards putting a greater focus on college baseball, and in turn, those teams are seeing greater success with each passing year. The result is increased competition, a battle for which MSU seems unprepared for at this time.
Whether this development requires a change in philosophy, coaching personnel, or something else entirely is up to the athletic administration on campus. It's clear to all, though, that some changes are required, and what changes there are may be known sooner rather than later without a late-season rally that bumps the Bulldogs into postseason play.